Young Economist Prize

Bocconi University

Capital intensity and firm dynamics

I show how some firms grow faster by adapting their production to cheaper and better capital goods. This pattern helps explain rising market power, a falling labour share, and why big firms gain sales without adding many jobs.

University of Pennsylvania

Bailout expectations, default risk and the dynamics of bank credit spreads

Did markets believe regulators’ promises to reduce bailouts after 2010? Yes. Combining a model with asset prices, I show that lower bailout expectations explain much of the post-2010 rise in bank borrowing costs and helped motivate banks to take less risk.

University of Mannheim

Bailing out homeowners: government aid and mortgage default after natural disasters

Poster

I apply a quantitative model to study how post-disaster government aid affects homeowners’ welfare. Using the United States as a case study, I find that although aid crowds out private insurance and encourages riskier housing, it raises overall welfare. Designing aid independently of insurance coverage could improve welfare further.

University of Oxford

Labour scarcity and productivity: insights from the last Nordic plague

Poster

Does labour scarcity drive or hamper productivity growth? In a natural experiment – a plague outbreak in the 1710s – labour-scarce regions shift into higher capital intensity and see a startling export boom. I show that labour scarcity triggers capital deepening and productivity growth.

Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Reassessing central bank reputation: beyond long-run expectations

Poster

I use theory and data to study central banks’ reputation for fighting inflation. This new dimension shapes how shocks feed into short-run expectations, a prediction confirmed using US data, and encourages central banks to react more aggressively to inflation.

Princeton University

Stellar skills: superstar firms and the specialization of human capital

Poster

My research studies how imperfect competition in technology-specific capital markets jointly shapes firms’ technology adoption and workers’ skill specialization. Capital providers invest in training to expand demand. Market power distorts allocation but can increase skill formation and adoption.

University of Cambridge

Decomposing the investment channel of monetary policy

Central bank decisions do more than change interest rates: they also shape how firms see the future. Using an unanticipated ECB bond purchasing programme, we isolate the pure borrowing-cost effect and show that cheaper debt raises investment far more than standard policy estimates suggest.

London Business School

Ports of power

My research studies how foreign ownership of ports reshapes the European trade network. Using data on 1.5 million truck shipments across 368 regions, I show that Chinese acquisitions reduce relative volumes in historically reliant areas and shift trade corridors within the Single Market, with implications for resilience and infrastructure governance.

University of Oxford

Knowledge generality, competition and growth

Innovations vary in their spillover effects. Firms respond strategically through R&D: leaders keep innovations narrow to limit spillovers to followers, while followers invest in general knowledge to absorb them. Incentivising leaders to invest in general R&D can boost long-run growth.

Pompeu Fabra University

Wealth and the geography of job ladders

Why do so many workers struggle to climb the job ladder? One reason is financial friction. When living costs are high and savings are low, workers can't afford the risk of unemployment in expensive cities. This limits their access to better opportunities. Improving unemployment insurance in these cities yields welfare gains.